Forex Market Outlook April 2025

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Ever feel like your prop firm challenge is out to get you? Spoiler alert: this week’s real forex market kinda feels the same.

Big data drops. Crazy news headlines. Sudden spikes. Safe-haven runs.

If you're trading this week — funded or still grinding your challenge — you're basically in survival mode.

Here's what's coming and why smart traders should treat this week like passing a prop challenge.

US Dollar: Fed Playing Risk Manager Again

Last week’s CPI cooled off to 2.6% (down from 2.8%). Translation? The market smells rate cuts.

This week brings:

• Retail Sales (April 15)
• PPI (April 16)
• Jobless Claims (April 17)
• Industrial Production (April 16)

If these disappoint → USD could stay soft.

Related: How to Pass a Prop Firm Challenge Without Blowing Your Account

But any data surprise to the upside? USD bulls will jump back in faster than a funded trader protecting their last 1% drawdown.

Pairs to watch: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

Trade War Vibes = News Filter Chaos

Remember when your prop firm said "news trading allowed"... then slipped your entry 20 pips?

Well, welcome to US vs China tariff war 2.0.

• US Tariffs: 145%
• China Response: 125%

Safe-haven pairs like CHF and JPY are loving this mess.

Any new Trump/Xi headlines = instant volatility.

Pairs to watch: USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

ECB Rate Decision: Will Lagarde Be Hawkish Enough?

ECB speaks on April 17.

• Hawkish ECB → EUR strength
• Dovish Lagarde → EUR dump incoming

EUR/USD has been retreating from 1.1473 highs — but don’t sleep on 1.1250 support.

Related: The Truth About Full-Time Prop Trading: What No One Tells You

Pairs to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Key Levels Prop Traders Should Care About

Pair	Key Level	Why It Matters
EUR/USD	1.1250 support	Dips likely get bought unless ECB disappoints
GBP/USD	1.3200 resistance	Bulls still in control after strong UK GDP
USD/JPY	Under 150.00	Risk-off mood favors JPY strength
USD/CHF	0.8600 support	CHF in safe-haven beast mode

Prop Firms Built for Weeks Like This

Firm	Why We Like It This Week
E8 Markets	No minimum trading days. Chill rules. Great for patient traders.
FXIFY	Instant funding options. Trade at your pace.
Alpha Capital	Structured but not suffocating. Great risk guidelines.

Forex News Calendar: April 13–19, 2025

Here’s a quick look at the major scheduled events this week that could shake the markets. Always double-check the exact release times with your broker's platform or an economic calendar like Forex Factory.

Date	Time	Event
Mon Apr 14	Tentative	CNY - New Loans
Tue Apr 15	1:00am	USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
Tue Apr 15	9:30am	AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tue Apr 15	2:00pm	GBP - Claimant Count Change
Tue Apr 15	2:00pm	GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
Tue Apr 15	5:00pm	EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Tue Apr 15	8:30pm	CAD - CPI m/m
Tue Apr 15	8:30pm	CAD - Median CPI y/y
Wed Apr 16	10:00am	CNY - GDP q/y
Wed Apr 16	10:00am	CNY - Industrial Production y/y
Wed Apr 16	10:00am	CNY - Retail Sales y/y
Wed Apr 16	2:00pm	GBP - CPI y/y
Wed Apr 16	8:30pm	USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
Wed Apr 16	8:30pm	USD - Retail Sales m/m
Wed Apr 16	9:45pm	CAD - BOC Monetary Policy Report
Wed Apr 16	10:30pm	CAD - BOC Press Conference
Thu Apr 17	1:30am	USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Thu Apr 17	6:45am	NZD - CPI q/q
Thu Apr 17	9:30am	AUD - Employment Change
Thu Apr 17	9:30am	AUD - Unemployment Rate
Thu Apr 17	8:15pm	EUR - Main Refinancing Rate
Thu Apr 17	8:30pm	USD - Unemployment Claims
Thu Apr 17	8:45pm	EUR - ECB Press Conference

Final Thoughts

This week? It's a challenge — no doubt.

But challenges are what prop traders live for.

Stay smart. Stay disciplined. And when in doubt? Trade less.

Because sometimes the best funded traders… don’t trade at all.